Let’s start with the obvious, sports betting is very difficult. I don’t think I’m telling any tales out of school when I say that it’s complicated, and complicated for good reason.
Sportsbooks don’t want you to win.
But with a little knowledge you can increase your chances of pulling a Rain Man and practically bankrupting a casino. And he was a… well it’ll just help.
Let’s dive in.
The Indiana Pacers are currently favored over the New York Knicks to win the series at -120, according to Draft Kings Sportsbook. (Not a promotion) Fuck it, use promo code PETER at Fan Duel if you want…
The Pacers being favored, though, brings up a lot of questions and is confusing the shit out of people. How can a team that is an underdog (+2.5 tonight at MSG) in game 5 and presumably game 7, be favored to win the series?
The answer lies in how the series odds are created. This is imperative to understand if you are betting, because if you don’t know the rules of the game, you are bound by perception and destined to be manipulated.
Let’s assume the game lines are similar to what they have been throughout the series.
- Game 5: Pacers +2.5
- Game 6: Pacers -7.5*
- Game 7: Pacers +2.5*
*Assumed spread
Now, every point spread has an implied winning percentage. In the below chart, I break down each game’s point spread and the probability that corresponds with that spread.
| Game and Location | Pacers | Knicks |
| Game 5 at MSG | +2.5/43.7% | -2.5/56.3% |
| Game 6 at GFA | -7.5/76.3% | +7.5/23.7% |
| Game 7 at MSG | +2.5/43.7% | -2.5/56.3% |
| Implied Odds | 163.7/3= 54.56% | 136.3/3=45.43% |
After breaking down the spreads and the percentages, the series line makes sense since the odds are based off the aggregate. All point spreads have a corresponding percentage value. These values can be found all over the internet by searching “point spread to percentage”, there may be slight variations but for all intents and purposes, they will be the same.
Once you have found the percentage value for each point spread, simply add the percentage values together and divide by the amount of games, in this case 3 game. That percentage can then be converted into a moneyline value. Again, these values can be found all over the internet by searching “percentage to moneyline”.
This leaves us with the Indiana Pacers as the favorites for the series at -120 or 54.56% chance of winning.
Holy shit! That was a lot of math.
The odds for this series will change slightly as will the point spreads for each game, including tonight’s game. But the formula remains accurate. There’s a lot more to betting on sports than predicting the games. Finding value matters, and understanding how the odds work will help you find that value.
If you don’t want to go through all that bullshit every time you make a bet, and most people ain’t got no time for all that, then bet responsibly and bet what you feel. It’s supposed to be fun. You will lose in the long run, make no mistake about that, but at least you won’t have to do math.
Because like Jimmy Buffett said, MATH SUKS!
If the Knicks were healthy they would win this series and have a shot against Boston and the winner of the West. Not Randle healthy; OG and Brunson healthy.
If the Knicks can retain their current roster and add a Superstar next year; they’d be serious contenders. I’m not the best speller but I like Mitchell from Cleveland. But I’d take Kevin Durant ( heard he’s not happy in Phoenix) or Booker. I don’t know if Paul George is that Superstar.
This year the Knicks were severely unlucky health wise losing Robinson and Bogdonovic early in the playoffs. If they just had those two and a healthy OG I think the Knicks can beat any team on any given night the way they play with grit and heart.
It’s sad because this year could have been their year even without Randle if the rest of the team stayed healthy.
OG had 28 points in 3 quarters prior to getting injured. I felt he could have had 40 that game the way he was playing and the Knicks would have been up 3 games to none.
It’s just a year of what could have been. Even without Randles 25 points, 9 Rebounds and 5 Assists.
I hope now some Superstars look at New York as a Destination.
Just wanted to share that. I heard of you and your website on the Michael Kay show.
Go Knicks!!!!!