I get it… Day game after a night game, a veteran pitcher against a hot young prospect (hey now!), and no Christian Yelich.
So why are we betting the over?
This one is simple.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been hitting. Outside of last night’s three hits, the Pirates gotten runners on base. And getting on base translates to runs. I’m also not going to trust a pitcher in Robert Gasser who couldn’t make this rotation to start the year. He pitched great last game, no doubt. But he also got to throw against the Cardinals. And the Cardinals might as well bring Joe Buck’s dad and Mark McGuire back, because nothing else is working.
Okay, but what if the kid turns in another good performance?
Glad you asked. He might. But he better go at least 7 innings, because the Brewers just used their only two reliable relievers last night. And if those guys aren’t available, they are simply fucked, because their bullpen sucks.
But what about Martin Perez? He’s a good reliable veteran, no?
Yes, he is. But he’s been shaky at home and he’s trending in the wrong direction. In two May starts, Perez has given up 7 runs on 16 hits in 10 and a third. And that was against the Rockies and Angels. Have you seen the Rockies and Angels play baseball? If you have, you probably left the TV on too long and they happened to appear.
Look, if this game gets out of hand Brewers manager Pat Murphy is going to leave in Gasser, because he’s most likely going back down this week and their bullpen is worse than starter having a shitty day.
Same goes for Pirates manager Derek Shelton; he’s left Perez in too long in each of his last two starts. And for good reason, the Pirates bullpen ERA is 6.23 in their last 10 games and trending downward; 8.47 in the last 5 games.
It’s a day game, your at your office, and you ain’t got shit going on. Bet the over and get in on it between 30 minute Zoom calls. As always, bet responsibly and without your head, because I’m the one doing all the work here…
Go Runs!
Pirates/Brewers over 8 or 8.5, I like both.
